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Some time ago, before the new PA board, we had a discussion about the best way to extract the "turn" time from the E1 and E2 pace figures. I ended up creating a small program that uses 3 different formulas, including one that I use in EquiSim as a demonstration of the various methods. You can download this program below. The program was just thrown together, and it is not very pretty to look at. This program is provided "as is" with NO warranties whatsoever for suitability of any purpose of any kind. Installation: Download the .zip file here on this web site. Extract the .exe from the zip file (unzip it). That's all you need to do to install the program. How it Works: 1. Use the file menu to open a card. The program will open TSN and BRIS data files (single file format). Sorry, you have to unzip them before opening them. 2. All of the races will be listed in the view, with all of the horses beneath each race, with all of their past performances. 3. The Columns are: F1, F2, F3, Final -- fractions and final time, in total seconds. E1, E2, Late, Speed -- pace and speed figures. F1/F2 Ratio -- First fraction divided by second fraction "Formula Name" -- the E1E2 pace figure (Turn Time?) as determined by the currently selected formula. 3. If memory serves, the fractions you see are converted into HORSE fractions, not race fractions 4. Use the buttons on the toolbar to select which formula you want to use to extract the E1E2 pace figure from the E1 and E2 figures. Split Times Shows the fractions as splints instead of running times E1 * R: This formula takes the E1 pace figure and multiplies it by the F1/F2 ratio. E2 * R: This formula takes the E2 pace figure and multiplies it by the F1/F2 ratio. E2 + (E2 - A) (E2 + (E2 -(E1+E2) / 2))): This formula takes the E2 time and adds to it the difference between the E2 time and the average of the E1 and E2 times (E1 + E2 / 2). 5. What Works? Here's an example of a pace line: Dist 5.5 fur Split Times R = F1/F2 = 22.3 / 23.5 = 0.948 Before going further with the math -- a Question: How is the E2 composite a number greater than E1, but the ratio of F1/F2 shows a slow down in the E1E2 portion of the race? That is -- E2 is 98, it represents the time to the 4 furlongs. E1 is 92, it represents the time the first quarter was run in. The first quarter was run faster than the second quarter (22.3 vs. 23.5), yet the E2 figure is greater than the E1 figure. Makes you scratch your head, doesn't it. Perhaps the E2 is generated on pars for four furlongs in this case, while E2 is generated on pars for two furlongs. So be it -- despite a slow down in actual running speed, the E2 figure, which represents time to the 4 furlong mark in this race, is greater than the E1 figure. This indicates that, despite the fact that it took longer to run the 2nd quarter of the race, we need a formula that will extract an "E1E2" pace figure that is greater than the E1 figure. It must be large enough to show an increase between the quarter and the half that warrants an E2 figure greater than the E1 figure. Here are the formulas in action: E1 * R = "E1E2" figure <> 92 * .948 = 87.216 This figure is too low - it doesn't account for the increased E2 figure. It is lower than the E1 figure. E2 * R = "E1E2" figure <> 98 * .948 = 92.904 This figure is greater than the first we arrived at, but still not enough... And the other method: A = 92 + 98 / 2 = 95 //average of the two figures E2 +(E2-A) = 98 + 98 - 95 = 101 Here the "E2E1" figure is 101, which is significantly higher than the E1 fig of 92, and higher than the E2 fig of 98. -Nathan (aka, Handle)
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