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Have you ever wondered how useful a particular piece of information about a
horse was? For instance, how useful is knowing that a horse has a better speed
figure in his last race than the other horses in the field? If this horse was
the favorite, would you bet against him or pass the race? Or, if the odds were
right, would this piece of information lead you to make a play? How would
you know what to do?
EquiSim ROI's Profiler feature delivers the answer to these types of
questions. The basic intent of the tool is to generate statistical
information about many of the typical types of information that we, as
handicappers, use in our daily pursuit of winners.
Knowing the win, place, and show percentage as well as the ROI of the horse
with the best BRIS Prime Power is useful. Knowing the same information for
sprint races, held on the dirt, for maiden claimers, and at a particular track
is extremely useful information. This is the type of information that the
Profiler feature allows you to get at. It generates a race profile based
on the race you are handicapping. This profile can be as specific or as
general as you want it to be. You can filter out races that don't match
very specific criteria, or choose not to do any filtering at all. EquiSim
ROI then retrieves statistics about many different types of
"abilities" from races in your database that match the profile.
Abilities include speed figures, pace figures, BRIS Prime Power, the Trainer Win
percentage, and a host of others. It even generates statistics for combinations
of abilities!
Here's a punch list of what the Profiler feature does.
 | It summarizes the "abilities" of each horse when you load the
race card. Most abilities are ranked "Dominant", "Best",
"Strong", and "Weak". The abilities are on display in
the Form View along with the past performances (Click
here to view form image): |
| In addition to the Standard Abilities, the Profiler also computes
"Connection Abilities". These are all of the standard abilities
cross referenced with the Trainer, Jockey, Owner, and Sire. There are a slew
of other abilities apart from the standard abilities that are available,
including "Surface", "Distance Category", "After
Claim", and many more. |
| It creates default filters for creating race profiles based on the race
you are handicapping. You can modify these filters easily to include or
exclude races in the profile based on numerous criteria. |
| It generates statistics about the type of race you are handicapping from
the race profile you create and displays them for you in an easy to read
format. These statistics include the average winning time at the distance of
the race you are handicapping, the breakdown of the odds for the winning
horses in the profile, the Quirin speed index and Quirin Shape of the race,
statistics for each Quirin running style, and the statistics for each
horse's abilities sorted by horse. |
| The Race Analysis portion of the Profiler View shows Quirin Running style
statistics:
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| The Profiler View displays each statistics for each horse's abilities, and
combinations of those abilities:
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In the image above, note all of the Positive ROI's earned by the type of
Runner that Sarastorm represents in this profile. Can you believe that she
went off at odds of 12.6/1 -- and won!!! And here's the favorite, who went
off at 0.7/1!!! Isn't It Fun has the best Prime Power -- but look at how
poorly this ability performs in this particular profile. The Best Prime Power
ability only wins at 15.38% and the ROI is -71.54 ? There are certainly
profiles where the best Prime Power is a good indicator, but the public clearly
keyed on the wrong factors for this race -- and they were fairly obvious to the
person with Profiler's statistical analysis at their fingertips.
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