Profiler

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Profiler Report

 

Have you ever wondered how useful a particular piece of information about a horse was? For instance, how useful is knowing that a horse has a better speed figure in his last race than the other horses in the field? If this horse was the favorite, would you bet against him or pass the race? Or, if the odds were right, would this piece of information lead you to make a play?  How would you know what to do?

EquiSim ROI's Profiler feature delivers the answer to these types of questions.  The basic intent of the tool is to generate statistical information about many of the typical types of information that we, as handicappers, use in our daily pursuit of winners.

Knowing the win, place, and show percentage as well as the ROI of the horse with the best BRIS Prime Power is useful.  Knowing the same information for sprint races, held on the dirt, for maiden claimers, and at a particular track is extremely useful information.  This is the type of information that the Profiler feature allows you to get at. It generates a race profile based on the race you are handicapping.  This profile can be as specific or as general as you want it to be.  You can filter out races that don't match very specific criteria, or choose not to do any filtering at all.  EquiSim ROI then retrieves statistics about many different types of "abilities" from races in your database that match the profile.  Abilities include speed figures, pace figures, BRIS Prime Power, the Trainer Win percentage, and a host of others.  It even generates statistics for combinations of abilities!

Here's a punch list of what the Profiler feature does.

It summarizes the "abilities" of each horse when you load the race card. Most abilities are ranked "Dominant", "Best", "Strong", and "Weak". The abilities are on display in the Form View along with the past performances (Click here to view form image):
In addition to the Standard Abilities, the Profiler also computes "Connection Abilities". These are all of the standard abilities cross referenced with the Trainer, Jockey, Owner, and Sire. There are a slew of other abilities apart from the standard abilities that are available, including "Surface", "Distance Category", "After Claim", and many more.
It creates default filters for creating race profiles based on the race you are handicapping. You can modify these filters easily to include or exclude races in the profile based on numerous criteria.
It generates statistics about the type of race you are handicapping from the race profile you create and displays them for you in an easy to read format. These statistics include the average winning time at the distance of the race you are handicapping, the breakdown of the odds for the winning horses in the profile, the Quirin speed index and Quirin Shape of the race, statistics for each Quirin running style, and the statistics for each horse's abilities sorted by horse.
The Race Analysis portion of the Profiler View shows Quirin Running style statistics:
The Profiler View displays each statistics for each horse's abilities, and combinations of those abilities:

In the image above, note all of the Positive ROI's earned by the type of Runner that Sarastorm represents in this profile.  Can you believe that she went off at odds of 12.6/1 -- and won!!!  And here's the favorite, who went off at 0.7/1!!!  Isn't It Fun has the best Prime Power -- but look at how poorly this ability performs in this particular profile. The Best Prime Power ability only wins at 15.38% and the ROI is -71.54 ?  There are certainly profiles where the best Prime Power is a good indicator, but the public clearly keyed on the wrong factors for this race -- and they were fairly obvious to the person with Profiler's statistical analysis at their fingertips.

 

 

 

 

Questions or Comments? Contact thorotech@thorotech.com
Copyright 2004

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